2-0 For Championship Sunday!! Super Bowl WINNER Inside!!!

[Grogan]

Two comfortable victories yesterday, as expected. The games are actually pretty easy to pick this time of year if you don’t overthink things—Philly & New England were clearly the better teams in yesterday’s games…..with all props to <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City>, they could only be the second-best team in a conference in a truly down year for the conference. Contain the running game, and that game’s over. As for the AFC, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> is a good, tough team….and I can’t imagine why anyone would have picked them yesterday. The two games were similar, really—stop the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> ground attack and the game is won. Having watched the Pats’ D-line improve throughout the year, it wasn’t hard to figure out how the game would unfold. OK, onto the big one……

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

Pats -7<o></o>

<o></o>

Don’t know how this line will move, or if it’s available less than 7 now, but this is what I’m seeing. I played the AFC line this week at 5, so I’m set. Whatever the number, I recommend the largest play you’re comfortable with.

<o></o>

The Eagles won decisively yesterday, doing a good job containing Vick and shutting down <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City>’s running game. Forced to make throws, Vick ended up making key mistakes, and the Eagles won comfortably. They ran they ball well, and McNabb made some plays. Game over.

<o></o>

Having said that, watching that game it was hard not to think you were almost watching a different SPORT than the AFC game. Good for the Eagles getting to the Super Bowl, but after winning two nail biters in the Super Bowl, the Pats romp here. No reason to analyze too much—the Pats will contain the Eagles’ running game, and McNabb will end up making some mistakes. The Pats will get their points, and the game will develop into a blowout in the second half as Philly is forced to take chances to get back into it.

<o></o>

One note on the psychology of the teams. For Philly, GETTING to the Super Bowl was their goal this year—they had the pressure of losing the championship game 3 years running, and finally made it. That helps them in that they’ll be loose. But countering that, they will play with the attitude of a team just happy to be there—never a winning approach. This isn’t really a decisive point (they’d lose anyway) but just another point.

<o></o>

In for WAY too much analysis over the next two weeks, and I’d guess the public will be on the Pats, so play it before the line goes up. But the line won’t matter too much. I'm sort of surprised it's not higher, really. Take the Pats, lay the points, and cash in.

 

[ElIguana]

Congrats on your payday, Grogan. You are probably giving good advice not to over-analyze this game, but I have never been one to take good advice.

The obvious "can't lose" play seems to be the Pats -7. You give great reasoning in your write-ups, and the Pats are 15-2-1 ATS this season (2-0 ATS in the playoffs). All this team does is find ways to win and cover.

My problem is that experience has taught me that the obvious "can't lose" play DOES lose about half the time! Before the game, you see the line and think "How could they not cover?" After the game, you are thinking "I can't believe they didn't cover!" You find 6 fluke plays and boneheaded mistakes that resulted in penalties & turnovers that cost your team points, but the bottom line is they did not cover.

Pats had some value going into game with Indy (won 10 units on that game, my last big play of the year!), but now it seems like the cat is out of the bag and John Q. Public is all over them.

I'm sure that I am guilty of over-analyzing this game, but it just doesn't "feel" right jumping on board with the Pats when the universe will surely do the same. Does anyone, other than hardcore Eagles fans and a few contrarians, believe that Philly actually has a shot to win this game or cover?

I guess I'll sit back and see what happens to the line & total and watch the rhetoric from far sharper cappers than myself, then make a decision later.

You're probably smart to pound NE -7 right now, Grogan, but something about it is just not sitting right with me. Maybe I'm one of those contrarians who has to go against public opinion and think the books won't let themselves get taken to the cleaners on the biggest gambling event of the year. GL

 

[sportsbet]

You guys are kidding right? The only team the Pats "blew out" was an inept dome baby in Indy. I wouldn't call what they did to Shittsburgh a blowout considering the gifts a rookie QB gave them.

If you underestimate our defense you are making a grave mistake! The Birds are very good at blowing up the screen pass and their secondary is night and day better than Pittsburgh's or Indy's or anyone else's in the AFC (except maybe a healthy NE).

Eagles will win this game...Brady will be the one to make mistakes when he realizes how difficult the birds defense is to read. Especially now that we're allowing 80 yards per game on the ground with the defensive changes that were made after the Pittsburgh game (which the Pats had an equally bad experience at in the regular season).

We have a very good chance here...this isn't Carolina (and Carolina lost by what 3 points last year?) we have a far better team than they did. We just couldn't catch the damn ball last year (and didn't have a healthy McNabb or Westbrook).


sb

 

[ElIguana]

Sportsbet, it has been weighing on my mind that NE won each of their 2 superbowl games by 3 points!!!! Granted, they were a 14 point dog to the Rams, but they barely squeaked out a win last year against a Carolina team that they should have blown out. But that was last year.

You have some legitimate points, sb, but with all due respect, I don't consider your opinion to be unbiased! You are obviously an Eagles homer, as Grogan is a Patriots homer.

Actually, I hope I don't hear many others touting the Eagles, and the line gets pounded up as high as it will go, as I am considering taking the dog and the points. Sure wish TO was playing. Thanks for your input. GL

 

[Paceman34]

Not a Blowout??

Sportsbet: I beg to differ with your opinion, Big Ben played like a rookie, gift or not N.E. definitely had their way with the mighty Pittsburgh Steelers in their house; and OH by the way, they also beat the most prolific scoring tream in the History of the NFL, Indi!!!

Please give credit where credit is due, the Pats have beaten the 2 best teams in the NFL and I wouldn't bet against Bill B. and the Pats!!! They are the most fundamental and balanced team in the NFL by far, and let's not discount the fact that they have the best quarterback in football!!!!

 

[sportsbet]

Pace they certainly get credit. NO ONE has proven they can stop New England for a couple of years now. They beat two very good football teams and they would probably beat them again but I'm just saying they did have circumstances in their favor (as we did...don't get me wrong we got two indoor teams outdoors).

Now the Vikes did beat the Packers outdoors at Lambeau so that team was certainly not phased by playing us outdoors. The Colts just have never had a defense or an offense that can excel in the elements.

Both teams (us and NE) beat good teams in the first round and the best competition in their respective conferences (us with Atlanta and their strong running offense and defense and the Pats with Pittsburgh and their #1 defense) so I think we have had parallel paths to the Super Bowl.

I don't think the Patriots are 7 points better than us. I find it hard to believe anyone would think that given there are so many similarities on both teams on both sides of the ball. I mean I think we are a mirror image of them...but it's just my opinion.

I most certainly respect the Patriots and respect the job they have done the last few years. But this year is different and I think a lot of people are making assumptions based on the last few years instead of looking at this game objectively. I'm just trying to be a voice for us...the underdog!

I think it will be a great game...but I don't think they will beat us by more than 7 points.

Good luck to you...

sb

 

[TotalRecall]

Alright Ive had enough of this BS talk of how "theyre just handing this game to N.E." If thats your reason to bet Philly in this situation, you need serious help. The Super Bowl WILL be played. However I dont see how Philly scores much against N.E. I have read alot of chest-beating about how good Philly is, and they are a good team , but people, they are not going up against just another "good" team here. This team lives and breathes on another level, way above teams like INDY, PITT, and yes, PHILLY. They've been showing you how powerful they are and, for Gods sakes guys, if you still dont see it by know with one f**king game to go I feel sorry for you. I dont want you to end your NFL season with a loss. So if your down alot this yeasr, and need the right side to get it back, dont bet the entire house on it. Save the garage at least in case Brady twists an ankle in pre-game warm ups, if you know what I mean. Alot of you are going to number crunch this game to death and somehow come up with the brilliant supposition that this game is "good value" on points for Philly. Thats what the wise guys said about PITT isnt it? . There is a special aura arond this team. Ive been here in N.E. my whole life. Ive seen the good times and the bad with this team. I know what Loserville was, and what its not now. I was one of the first to see the greastness in Brady and I told everyone I could in 2001 but they blew me off to bet the farm on the greatest show on turf. Boy were they wrong, and I won thousands that year getting N.E. at 5-1 even late in the year. and the srew the 14pts I dont need no stinking 14 pts very nice ML. Anyway, as soon as the game against Philly starts, you will sense a focus in the N.E. players thast is as intense as anything you have ever seen. This makes teams that play N.E. fell like they're swimming upstream against the current. It affects the way theythink and react in game conditions ( never mind SB conditions) and leads to mistakes. N.E. does beat themselves- so Philly will have to have that dubious distinction. It wont matter though. What they give up in mistakes wont compare to what is taken from them by their inability to stop N.E. from going up and down the field all day. The blowout factor that is almost a staple in SB's will almost certainly be in play in this one. One more thing. N.E. was afraid of INDY. They were afraid of PITT. And they will go into this game suitably afraid of PHILLY. What Im saying is this team is made up of, from top to bottom, players who take no one and no team for granted. With a win BB will surpass statistically Vince Lombardi (after which the trophy is named) as the greatest coach in the history of THE GAME OF FOOTBALL. Somebody said Ben R. was just a rookie and Mcnabb is not. But when he goes up against a 2-ring SB winner in Brady in a type of atmosphere hes never played in before- he will be. And all the Campbells Chunky soup in the universe is not going to help them beat a team like. N.E. And finally, Philly looked like they didnt need T.O in that game vs.Atlanta. Against BB they wont have that luxury. With T.O out BB's defense will be more likely to score points like they did against Little Ben. Poor Freddy Mitchell wont be smirking about how he can thank his hands. He will be double - triple covered, punched around pretty good and reduced to being thankful his head is still attached until the game is well in hand. N.E. by 21+ pts.

 

[TotalRecall]

Lots of typos sorry, you get the gist of it thats all that matters to me I hope u too.

 

[sportsbet]

LOL You're kidding right...Eagles defense is easily just as good as New England (in fact we give up less points per game than the Patriots). In fact our secondary is better than New England's and we will make life very difficult for the Patriots offense. I don't see how New England scores on the Eagle defense other than field goals and maybe one fluke TD if they're lucky enough to get it.

Dillon will be no factor. They were outplayed in Pittsburgh and will be LUCKY to beat the Eagles in Jax. Trotter will OWN him.

Eagles win going away...bank on it.

sb

 

[coconutman]

I have the Eagles from Sunday... prolly won't change my play. Too many people will pound NE. Eagles will keep this **** close and prolly win. I hope the nation is on NE that would just make me feel better about the play. Too much hype on Brady and co.

Eagles for the win.

 

[Grogan]

A word about homers.......

El says in his post that I am one (not a problem, El, always find your posts interesting on the board) and it's true I'm a Pats fan. But.

I think it's important to make a distinction here, because I think there are "homers" who can assist in making plays and others who can't. I'd put myself into the first category here, for a very simple reason--I have NO problem in saying a home team isn't going to get it done. I think someone with a fan perspective can be HUGELY valuable, because they can bring a familiarity to the table about the team that you just can't match otherwise.

Now the question is, how can you tell? By which I mean, how do you know if the handicapper is one who isn't just a hometown schill but someone putting out good advice? One obvious way is if they're around long enough where you see them go against "their" team, with some accuracy. Doesn't apply here for me, not posting my picks long enough--would have to take my word, and that four bucks gets you a cup of coffee.

So there's really no way, but let me say this as someone who only posts because I have a pretty good feel for things and appreciate others who have helped me......I LOVE the Pats here, and it ain't a homer call.

I've got some other thoughts on El's (very good) point about going against public perception, but I'll get to that one later. Wanted to make this homer post first.

 

[sportsbet]

Grogan is correct. I think considering that both of our teams have excellent ATS records the last few years we can both make good cases for our "home" teams to be profitable ATS.

sb

 

[Paceman34]

Too much Hype about Brady??????

Coconut:

With all due respect,,,,,,,,,,please........are you serious???? After all that the Patriots and Brady have accomplished you call it hype..... Understand that there isn't a team in the history of the NFL that has accomplished what the pats have over the past 2 years. Brady has proven himself time and time again,,,,,,,, by the way,,,, he still hasn't lost a playoff game in his career!!!!! Not a bad stat

 

[X-Files]

...Eagles defense is easily just as good as New England (in fact we give up less points per game than the Patriots).

Eagles D is good, no doubt about it, but i am not so sure how valid
it is to compare points given up by teams in different conferences.
In my mind the AFC had a significant edge over the NFC this year,
as is evident by its lopsided inter-conference W-L record.

 

[X-Files]

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

One note on the psychology of the teams. For Philly, GETTING to the Super Bowl was their goal this year—they had the pressure of losing the championship game 3 years running, and finally made it. That helps them in that they’ll be loose. But countering that, they will play with the attitude of a team just happy to be there—never a winning approach. This isn’t really a decisive point (they’d lose anyway) but just another point.

<o></o>

I feel the Eagles will not be happy to have just made it
to the Super Bowl. Although they should remain the best
bet to return & play NE again next year, there is no
guarantee the present players will ever get another shot.
But, like you said, this isn't a decisive point.

 

[sportsbet]

Our last championship was 1960. We have to win this game....we've been waiting way too long for this game. I think they know that. They aren't as young as some of the other teams that have been Patriots fodder the last few years.

sb

 

[TotalRecall]

"Dillion will be no factor." LOL Sportsbet. I know Philly has some fine racetraks, but you really should take those blinders off. When your watching him run wild against Phillys D rememberb this- Hes the best back in the game! Hey I dont care for homers any more than the next guy. I happen to be from NE. I am not a homer. I go with what I see anywhere in the country. I was a big 49's fan the year they won. I bet them before the season began at 3-1 and they smoked SD 44-10. So Ive got persective on any team thats I think has the right stuff. The Patriots just happen to play in the same state that Im from. Lucky me. "Dillion will be no factor." Heres your no factor stats for after the game. Dillion will get 100+ yards and score twice. Brady will throw to Givens, Branch and company for a combined 4 TDs. AV will kick for 1 or 2 FG's. Thats (48)pts. If Philly scores half (24) as many I will be amazed. NE 48-24. Nobody shuts "Clock-Killin-Dillion" (the nickname Tedy Bruschi gave him) down. Bruschi should know. Hes a Quarterback killer. Mcnabb better watch out for him. He'll be out there waitin for Mcnabb to throw his dump offs and will pounce on anything he gets near , even if he has to strip the ball from you. Dillion would have easily gotten 100+ against the vaunted Squealer defense if PITT hadnt made it so easy for Brady to score through the air. You want a no factor dont be suprised if they smother your boy Westbrook. If you expect big things from one of your players Belichick neutralizes him. I know Westbrook is on that list. T.O. isnt. Now theres a guy who might have been tough to defend. Too bad hes not even playing.

 

[Grogan]

Public perception......when everybody and their mother is on one side, should you go the other way?

The answer is........sometimes.

As to when, it's just a matter of handicapping. When it comes to football, playoff football, it's usually a high-powered offense that everyone loves who will come crashing down to earth (the Bills teams, the Rams, the Colts.) But the fact is, a lot of the time--most of the time--teams that seem clearly superior will win out. Particularly in the Super Bowl, home of the routs, where things can get out of hand. My biggest play of all time was Super Bowl whatever number it was, San Francisco over Denver. I mean, that game was over the minute it started. The 49ers ended up winning by what, 45 points.

This game isn't that game--Philly's much better then Denver was. But this is NOT the time to "go against the public." NE wins the game. So if you're better the Eagles, you're betting on the real slim range of Pats by 1 to 6 points. New England is clearly superior, and they've done the close Super Bowl thing. It's a comfortable, double-digit victory, with the only question the margin outside of that, which is always kind of a crapshoot, what with turnovers, etc.

Put the fan BS aside, this is money we're talking about. Go ahead and make some a week from Sunday.

 

[sportsbet]

Put the fan BS aside, this is money we're talking about. Go ahead and make some a week from Sunday.

You're right...make some money. Bet the dog outright. Cover yourself if you want with the points. The only team that beats the Eagles is the Eagles because New England will not outplay them.

Dillon is NOT even in the same zip code as Westbrook. Brian can do a lot of things Dillon CAN'T (as can Dorsey Levens). You will see the Eagles two headed monster run WILD on the Patriots and the poor Pats will be crying home.

This game breaks down like this:

If you LIKE MONEY...and you WANT MORE MONEY..you bet on the Eagles.

If you HATE MONEY...and you want to make a donation to your book...you bet on New England.

That's pretty easy isn't it?

sb<!-- / message -->

 

[sportsbet]

If you expect big things from one of your players Belichick neutralizes him.

We have a ton of weapons...Westbrook, Levens, LJ, Lewis, Mitchell, Pinkston and Owens (who should play) are all capable of big days...not to mention Donovan and his mobility (which he showed against the best run defense around vs Atlanta).

We're allowing under 80 ypg since Trotter was put in as the starter at linebacker. The Patriots offense doesn't scare me at all. I think the Pats are in for a rude awakening on Super Bowl sunday. :toast:

sb